May 7, 2012, and spring semester is on the shelf. Always a good feeling to bring these 16 week projects we call classes to conclusion, especially after missing so much last year due to way too much death and illness.
I'm adding to the posts below that I linked to a couple of days ago, and adding some commentary. It looks like I've pretty much limited myself to this blog and will use Global Courses more for teaching materials and specific research projects. The security-related topics I cover here are....or should be...of much importance as the election approaches as well as for general purposes. For example, part of the reason I'm more focused than ever on the Gulf Cooperation Council was illustrated clearer than I could ever do by Senator Marc Rubio on Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace. Rubio said the following (from FNS transcripts):
"But I do think that we need to do a better job of beginning to prepare our allies in the world for the reality that, at the end of the day, if negotiations and sanctions don't work, there will be a need for military action, because what we cannot tolerate, and I think the world would agree, what we cannot tolerate is a nuclear Iran."
This was a quick statement whose details were not explored farther. However, given what Sen. Rubio surely knows -- or can quickly find out -- about the Obama Administration's policies toward the Arab countries in the Persian Gulf region that have added up to a revitalized Gulf Cooperation Council, $100 billion in arms sales ($60 bn of that to Saudi Arabia, who is a vital ally against Iran). I believe this $100 billion of sales under Obama just about quintuple the sales to Arab states under George W. Bush. I'll try to confirm that, but it seems I remember seeing $100 bn v. $22 bn in this regard. There are also the reports of Obama's transfer of F-22's to UAE (although F-22s are facing their own issues, with U.S. pilots complaining of oxygen problems). As the Wall Street Journal published on 11/11/11:
The Obama administration has quietly drawn up plans to provide a key Persian Gulf ally with thousands of advanced "bunker-buster" bombs and other munitions, part of a stepped-up U.S. effort to build a regional coalition to counter Iran.
The proposed sale to the United Arab Emirates would vastly expand the existing capabilities of the country's air force to target fixed structures, which could include bunkers and tunnels—the kind of installations where Iran is believed to be developing weapons.
The move represents one way the Obama administration intends to keep Iran in check....
In sum, U.S. deployments, diplomacy and arms sales add up to a strategy of encircling Iran with well-armed Arab states, many of which would likely pursue nuclear weapons if Iran does, which is another factor in Iran's calculations. This doesn't account for the continued arms cooperation with Israel, the role of Turkey in containing and/or fighting Iran, and additional developments in Azerbaijan (arms cooperation with Israel) and Afghanistan (U.S. retains a military presence).
Further below are reports on the issue of three islands contested by Iran and UAE, and occupied by Iran since the Shah's reign. This is an issue that can provide the spark for conflict, or at least brinkmanship. Given the attention the US has showered on UAE, and our backing of UAE in this dispute, as well as the islands' location near the Strait of Hormuz, I think this is a reasonable expectation.
5/5/12
It's end-of-semester grading time, so I'll return to this soon, but I wanted to bring attention to two parallel scenarios that are subject to very short term pressures. First is an escalation of a dispute between the United Arab Emirates and Iran over three islands occupied by Iran in spite of UAE claims to them -- Abu Musa, Greater (or Big) Tunb and Lesser (or Little) Tunb. These islands are located in one of the most strategically significant -- and fragile -- places in the world: the Strait of Hormuz. It's no surprise, then, that the U.S. is becoming increasingly involved in the situation while taking advantage of UAE's strategic location for deterring or defeating Iran and President Obama's military buildup of the Gulf Cooperation Council, turning it into a Persian Gulf NATO of sorts. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have been the two biggest partners in the recent and significant increase in U.S. arms sales to GCC states, and this week saw reports of the U.S. deploying fifth generation steath F-22s to UAE.
The second situation involves the recent signing of the U.S.-Afghanistan agreement establishing a framework to guide relations over the next decade or so. The links I provide here focus on the Obama Administration's New Silk Road Project, by which Afghan descent into failed state status will in part by countered by a regional strategy of engagement. Within this framework, the future of Afghanistan as a major energy transit zone is vital. To both complicate matters and tie them to the U.S. effort against Iran, the Trans-Afghanistan and Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Pipeline projects are indicative not only of the New Silk Road Strategy but also of U.S. efforts to avoid both Iran and Russia when settling oil and gas transit routes. While pipeline negotiations have gone alternative on and off over the past decade, there has been recent progress that makes the topic worth pursuing.
May 4, 2012: Reports of escalating tensions over the three disputed islands have become more frequent. http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=39331&tx_ttnews[backPid]=26&cHash=b2f5359e1a3d9522a1a336d1a6ef4bf9
and
http://www.dur.ac.uk/ibru/news/boundary_news/?itemno=14513
April 29, 2012 report: Gulf states hold military exercises in clear reference to islands at center of Iran-UAE dispute:
http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Arab-States-Hold-War-Games-as-Tensions-With-Iran-Mount-149425335.html
April 17, 2012: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/apr/17/iran-leaders-visit-to-island-reignites-feud-with-e/
Also, a report highlighting positive support for UAE from Kuwait on this issue in particular:
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/kt-article-display-1.asp?section=nationgeneral&xfile=data/nationgeneral/2012/april/nationgeneral_april193.xml
As well as France and Italy:
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/kt-article-display-1.asp?section=government&xfile=data/government/2012/april/government_april40.xml
The Arab League also seizes on this issue:
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/kt-article-display-1.asp?section=middleeast&xfile=data/middleeast/2012/april/middleeast_april275.xml
Escalating tensions over the islands dispute at this particular point in time, in combination with war games, U.S. arms sales and transfer of F-22s to UAE, and long-simmering concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, all point to the possibility of a casus belli, that is, a claim or even military move by UAE to reclaim the islands. International law, with the possibility of a UAE case against Iran brought to the International Court of Justice, can once again lend a legitimizing cover for preventative warfare.
An example of arms sales as part of the strategy of encircling/containing/deterring/defeating Iran with regional powers, from a November 2011 story on considerations of selling precision-guided bombs to UAE:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/11/us-usa-uae-bombs-idUSTRE7AA0VT20111111
Consider also the timing of this stories from the Khaleej Times on a "dazzling display" of military might by the UAE:
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/kt-article-display-1.asp?xfile=data/government/2012/May/government_May4.xml§ion=government
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Another element of the counter-Iran coalition is the high priority to the politics of pipelines. Not only has it long been U.S. policy to craft a pipeline transit policy that avoids benefiting both Iran and Russia, recent developments deserve attention. Of general/background interest: Congressional Research Service 2012 report on sanctions against Iran a recent and comprehensive overview:
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RS20871.pdf
Next is the significance of the The New Silk Road Project as a key part of U.S. strategy for the future of Afghanistan. My friends in the field of Regional Studies may rejoice that regionalism is back, as illustrated with the plan to embed Afghanistan's survival and development to its immediate geopolitical region, and projects such as the Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline (TAP) and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) Pipeline are high stakes attempts to implement the strategy.
May 3, 2012: US Afghan plan: (1) Asia Times and (2) Oil and Glory Blog (FP)
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/NE03Df01.html
http://oilandglory.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/05/03/should_us_troops_really_spend_another_12_years_in_a_bloodied_afghan_seige
and I usually find this blog well done and useful:
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2012/05/03/the-eagle-has-landed-in-central-asia/
as well as this one, a good companion to the previous:
http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/5756
MAP: Two proposed pipelines: TAPI (which includes TAP in green) and IPI:
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2008/05/~/media/Images/Reports/2008/bg2139_map1sm/bg2139_map1.ashx
On a related note, the UAE declared its intention to increase its contribution to global energy supplies in the case of disruption due to conflict:
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/kt-article-display-1.asp?xfile=data/uaebusiness/2012/May/uaebusiness_May71.xml§ion=uaebusiness
On Afghanistan, Anthony Cordesman (Center for Strategic and International Studies): May 1, 2012
http://csis.org/publication/time-focus-afghan-good-enough
This piece in Armed Forces Journal is an interesting read but the author, Collins, is on the one hand unclear about what he means by "stay the course," as he does not overtly disapprove of the current plans for the next 2 and 10 year periods. On the other hand, he offers a rather specific plan with his 15:20 suggestion that NATO maintain 15, 000 troops and a commitment of $20 billion for further Afghan stabilization.
http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2012/04/9951800
and the Washington Times on Iran in US contingency plans
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/may/1/iran-is-top-contingency-in-whittled-us-war-plans/?page=1
and referencing the above,
http://www.nti.rsvp1.com/gsn/article/updated-us-conflict-preparations-focus-iran/?mgh=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nti.org&mgf=1
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Further commentary.......Bringing it all together....coming soon.........
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